The very definition of an unsophisticated investor is Being more willing to buy something, the more its price goes up.. Take a look at the German Mark after WW1. January 3, 2018, 4:42 pm. We have never in history had such expanding currency supply backed by NOTHING. But if you have some play money, it doesnt hurt to speculate if that is what you enjoy doing and dont mind losing everything you put in. Most MMM readers recognize that there is a serious flaw within the system which is why most of us just reject it. Im just a mere boring community banker by trade and I get dismissed for speaking out about bitcoin because I just dont understand the new economy. It has been made ground up to be censorship resistant and has been thriving for past 8 years despite singular opposition from every quarter. Couldnt have said it any better myself. Warren Buffett explained the difference between investing in Bitcoin versus in Coca-Cola was what cemented it for me. They will have to learn the hard way. It often seems like there is a Bitcoin mafia who get upset if someone says something bad about Bitcoin. They know him as Mr. Money Mustache -- a gentleman who retired at the ripe age of 30 without a million-dollar salary. Adeney retired from his job as a software engineer in 2005 at age 30 by spending only a small percentage of his annual salary and consistently investing the remainder, primarily in stock market index funds. January 3, 2018, 4:51 pm. Well thats all due to the crypto currency craze. Because reasons, technology and internet! Since we are still in the opening stages of the Bitcoin phenomenon it is BTCs perceived functionality properties that should drive the current price action, not so much the mania and the speculation aspect. January 2, 2018, 9:13 pm. Remember there was social media before Facebook. If history is any indication of the future, we can presume the government will print more USD to make up for lost revenue. There is no intrinsic value in ALL FIAT CURRENCIES. The value of a blockchain is its immutability, derived from its decentralization. Blog readers. January 2, 2018, 6:09 pm. January 4, 2018, 7:42 am. I enjoyed the cancer pill analogy, probably the best I have heard of yet. Back it up, or youre just another nutjob. No govt is just going to let the ability to control their economy be taken away from them. This results in a silent crash, and a loss in purchasing power for stock holderseven if the nominal price of stocks remains the same. Besides, how do you get BTC in the first place? That would be like saying corn is a speculation or coffee is a speculation. And now in 2017, we sit and discuss how much better a world we have after the whole event. Stop Ironing Shirts A lot of stocks never pay dividends though. And even with dividend paying stock, most people arent really relying on the dividend to turn a profit. Unless youre a rogue nation trying to dodge sanctions? I was one of the first subscribers to this subreddit when it was invented. Value is subjective; not all speculation is irresponsible; gold and other odd stores of value have novelty effects. Full faith and what? In one of my IRAs I bought some AAPl in 2009 for $28k. Inexpensive computers thousands of times more powerful than the best you could buy for $10K in 1990. January 3, 2018, 8:02 am. Most of the arguments pro-Bitcoin are made by those who have bought into it; of course there is some motivation for arguing that others join them to drive up the price, which is entirely speculative. Gold and tulips and coffee and salt and any other good at a fair price, however, are an entirely different story. but fail to recognize that the USD also has no intrinsic value. If cryptocurrency takes off, its much more likely that the winning one hasnt even been created yet, if history holds. For the first time in history, a machine can own money and make its own purchases. Most of us, especially in the US and Europe, are free and are allowed to accumulate wealth through education and hard work. Money only has value if it is stable and trusted. Speculation is very useful and I dont think anyone is going off on peoples choice to speculate, but people are very bad at properly evaluating risk. For just $2 you could be a multimillionaire. But thats just the start. January 2, 2018, 7:11 pm. Even a war on drugs, which has a physical element, isnt being won by central gov. Is it likely to be worth $0? rollie fingers So we need more credible people to speak out against it. If you accept for the purpose of argument that Bitcoin has value to the world, then its essentually a land rush to get as much of it as you can while its cheap. if you over leverage yourself in any of these you can find yourself in trouble. Even as these banks show SKY-HIGH PROFITS, they mostly evade their share of tax via loopholes. January 5, 2018, 12:35 pm. FriendlyPoster > what is the fundamental reason that existing currencies have been driven up so high? While I agree with your sentiment about Bitcoin I have been echoing similar warnings to friends and family since its mid-2017 breakout to $2k I think several other cryptos are definitely deserving of a portion, albeit small, of an investment portfolio. "@origamicyber So true! I agree with MMMs eloquent outlining of the major concerns with investing in cryptocurrencies. SMH. Time will tell. All this bullshit about backed by faith and credit of my country goes out of the window when currencies die someday. How much do you have invested in BTC? So in order to have immutability, we need decentralization. You need some sort of fundamentals, and in bitcoin there are none. Real investments require production and income. Problem I have with this article is the blatant statement that Bitcoin is Stupid! January 3, 2018, 8:50 pm. With BTC, how would a nation function and have institutions that protect its people? Priced in gold, they are still down more than 60%. Gold bullion has several thousand years of history. Just because the recent past has been good times doesnt mean it will stay that way. Maybe a real article will get the idea to sink in. A boy named Sue While silver and copper has been used as a form of money (notably imperial China, it was a silver based society with gold used as a high currency), golds special attributes has always been seen as a form of value storage and trusted trade medium. How much of your net worth is in this investment? Alright, time for a thought experiment. Agree, the valuation of these cryptocurrencies are out of whack. If FIRE is your goal, Id get out. January 3, 2018, 7:32 am. Trust yes. Look at all the nations that proposed a EUR based oil exchange, all overthrown (no, not saying those were shining examples of humanity but the prioritization is simply correlated enough). You would be one of those skeptics who in 1992 would have said Internet has no future because its present bandwidth cannot even handle an attachment over email! January 2, 2018, 6:23 pm. Do you fault coffee or corn or wheat for being non-productive, or do you appreciate them as goods, at an appropriate price? Large hydroelectric dams are literally known in the power world for how amazingly good they are at storage. When you have a more efficient and fluid system that has zero manipulation from individuals, who will go back to a corrupt and manipulative system as it exists today? Herd behavior? (based on July 20th blog post) Started by caracarn. This might be normal for an era such as this, where the growth is coming from real tech companies instead of widget makers. January 2, 2018, 5:54 pm. Warren Buffet says dont invest in what you dont understand, and I dont understand Bitcoin. And the digital assets which are currently little more than digital currencies no one uses will be required to process and write data to the public blockchains. There is a reason that central banks own most of the wotlds gold. Trust IS the value of Bitcoin. Be careful what you wish for. Long time reader, first time commenter (ha). I wonder why. Returns are down and all that cash needs to go somewhere. MMM says: There is no intrinsic value in cryptocurrencies. Even if Mining gets centralised, Bitcoins future cannot be dictated to by them! Discussion with friend from nVidia is irrelevant to bitcoin mining. How many here have switched from Mortgage Fast Pay to Money Market? Well, SOMEONE has to keep the bankers & wealthy rich, right??? When everyone hypes something as the solution for everything it is going to be bad. Sure, an anonymous way to exchange money and escape the eyes of a corrupt government is a good thing for human rights. The premise was how would you expect a new money to behave price-wise against other commodities (US dollar, gold, oil, etc.)? They were literally carting around wheelbarrows full of the note because the hyperinflation the government produced killed the currency. The US has most to lose if dollars are exchanged for bitcoin as the US will not be able to print the cash for almost no cost and then get countries to use it for payment (my advice is be very worried about dollar value over next 10 years) but it was genius and made America rich! And society is comprised of them, and nothing else. But some people actually DO value rare baseball cards and stuffed animals and gold and tulips at current prices, as goods in and of themselves. Even more troubling, an estimated $11 trillion of government debt now trades at negative yields. Bro, we get ityou want to wipe your butt with germ-infested cash. January 5, 2018, 8:26 am. I could only shake my head. Noticed this ad on the corner of a website recently because we ALL need daily updates on an obscure piece of niche software technology! No. And a currency thats not used for transactions isnt a real currency. One of my coworkers at MMM-HQ works for nVidia, and part of his job is hunting down mining thieves who comandeer virtual servers (cloud computing) to mine coins on their behalf. While cryptos are new, they also dont meet the needs of traditional cash flow analysis but for a new asset class but just because its new doesnt mean its a bad idea. You may be smart enough to recognize why one currency is going up and another isnt and to not go all-in on something. Firstly, if Jihan is that rich, its probably because he doesnt spend his money. Would yours? ), bastringue Westerners will not see the benefit for sometime as we have no purpose ourselves for bitcoin but once it becomes a single global currency that can be used in every shop of the world then everyone will be holding bitcoin. Hows that Nvidia stock doing now that GPU sales have been skyrocketing this last year giving them two record years in 2016 and 2017? Nope I am not a skeptic, and also since I was there then (with pre-internet BBS). (like ATMs were supposed to replace Tellers years ago *eye roll*) And Bitcoin is replacing the banking system? I also invested in a bitcoin two years ago, and paid off all my debt with it. Thats a lot of electricity that can be used to power 3.3 million homes wasted. So no surprise thats the first one, especially considering you need it to make the system work at all. False analogies. For this article, I have set the bar much lower to show you the religious conviction that crypto speculators have. Its speculation, pure and simple. . Im patiently watching on the sideline to see how this is going to pan out. Might want to polish that up before going public again. Cryptocurrencies are extremely risky. Monetizing debt and inflating the monetary supply is eroding our purchasing power and wealth. Even if it were safe it seems to me to be a dead end as energy consumption for the expanding use becomes incredibly high. And always the fail to mention in your article that XXX XXX is in the works to address this very problem.. Doingone transaction burns 215 kilowatt-hours of electricity, enough to run the entire MMM household for more than a full month, or to power an electric car formore than 800 miles of driving. Ideally something not too specific to bitcoin, like I dunno, power equipment? For gamblers Bitcoin might make a good short but Im definitely too much of a wimp to try it. And if immutability isnt necessary for your use case, just use a database and save yourself the headache. You respond with an implied personal insult. Transaction fees on the DASH network are effectively 0. Absolutely, so Ill proceed with it. Chris Urbaniak If you feel comfortable developing your own metrics with which to gauge coins and want to invest in projects long term, you can. Not likely, bitcoin mining farms are in China because of the cheaper energy costs. Yeah, I had watched/listened to lots of Andreas stuff as part of the research for this. You are a fine example of that specimen horse. Ultimately, Bitcoins functionality is what the digital asset should derive most of its value from. Mr. Money Mustache is. Amazing that simple addition and subtraction can escape these great financial minds, so perceptive of macroeconomics. Ill stick with the stock market thank you very much. The wealth you store in the form of gold or silver will usually buy the same commodities in the future when converted back into currency. Subsequently, some 70 years later, Im still using that toilet paper to finance my retirement, buy cars, houses and all sorts of things? You clearly have a contrarian opinion here. Do we really want a place where youre either an Amazonian or Walmartian? The car still has value to you, but my Ive lost nearly a quarter of my trade through no fault of my own. The thing that stopped me is that shorting it is a *pain in the ass*. And then follow that thread all the way back to the fact that the future blockchain(s) all of these future uses are built on are going to be continuations of the most valuable blockchains of today because valuable blockchains are a prerequisite for the data integrity required for high value use cases. They said they are going to ban it, but there was such public outcry the government just backed off and now says they are still discussing the matter! Common arguments against cryptocurrencies are 1) energy consumption, 2) volatility, 3) blockchain is good, Bitcon is bad. And btw, just switching currency is not going to remove any debt. Mr. Money Mustache Thank you Jane, I have been waiting for someone to point this out! Which is fine, but this trust-less nature of Bitcoin is what the early adopters valued. (Its also very hard to make jewelry out of. Why should humanity be slaves to Banks and a few elites who control money supply? meep er It has now grown quite a bit, of course. As should everyone. Scott Nicholson You will also have to pay a fee to transfer from the exchange to your wallet. Banks and elites will remain even with Bitcoin, and if it goes your way it will probably the miningfarms and people who collect the most. Cryptocurrency could be the proverbial cure for cancer, but if its made illegal or heavily regulated through prudent or reactionary legislation (YMMV) it doesnt really matter, does it? Bitcoins are all the same, they are not numbered, they dont rot and dont have a shelf life. Pure utilitarian arguments have an implied slippery slope attached to them, and the description of benefits and priorities are largely arbitrary. BigTasty1212 We end up in Utopia? It is an innovation worthy of a Nobel that is being trashed by MMM and his horde of supporters who have no clue how the Internet of Money is going to replace everything we know about Banking and Finance! But since the formula is open and free, other companies would quickly come out with their own cancer pills. Now lets get back to your kick-ass money savvy engineering experiments :-), Oh, dont feel too bad. I completely agree, investing in Bitcoin is JUST like investing in lottery tickets. Profit! Not going to do this with you.. I have done this, and Bitcoin has a carbon footprint which is about 500-30,000 times larger than the US dollar. Apparently the friend had doubled his money. The Ramsey Show. Exchanges and funds get looted (or looted by the operators) all the time. Great text. Some newer, better tech has now taken BTCs place here (LTC or any DAG technology). January 23, 2018, 12:50 am, Why Mr. Money Mustache is wrong and Nassim Taleb is right about Bitcoin: https://medium.com/p/81f5ffa42deb?source=linkShare-6c666494704c-1516693614. You are correct to note that Since the late 1990s when Shiller started promoting the CAPE ratio stocks have regularly been in bubble territory. Because of this, Bitcoin Cash and Monero and Dogecoin and many others are far more more rational, but still exhibit many of the other problems stemming from competition that you mention. I dare you to look it up! . Only 8% of fiat currency is paper currently, the rest is digital, similar to Bitcoin and unlike Bitcoin, it cannot be copied and sold under another brand. A stock is a share of an actual company, bound by rules and regs (however imperfectly administered, at least they exist). I just dont understand the new economy. Technology is always the game changer. document.getElementById( "ak_js_1" ).setAttribute( "value", ( new Date() ).getTime() ); Take a look around. Peter Mevoin One of the 3 points MMM stated it needs. Do you practice illegal tax evasion as your primary wealth strategy? Undoubtedly the bubble will burst or mining difficulty will increase, but Ill be able to sell this supercomputer to some nerd play World of War Craft on. The bitcoin price isnt rising because people are buying the coins to conduct real business. Dont you find it strange, though, that my grandfather used what you call toilet paper to buy his first car, and his first house? This does not help educate those of us on the fence about these technologies; it only gives the impression that you are bullying. His main investing motivation because he feels like hes late to the game and wants the earnings he could have had. And to your last point Lightning network will be cheaper? But thats just the software side (Blockchain). If not, you may want to think about selling. Im fine with crypto but not as an investment. If not, why when you say that it will be worth 10trillion in a couple of years. A prescient article, but unfortunately, those of us that have investigated Bitcoin and come to the same conclusions(no interest in speculation, possibly completely value-less) must continue to put up with the Bitcoin bulls, and as seen in this comment section, they are extremely bullish. I dont care either way about bitcoin and am not even sure why hydro comes into the discussion, but you cant say something so blatantly 180 degrees false and expect not to be corrected! The internet. MentalArson When the internet / electric / grid is down, I cant pay him via my iphone and at the moment, the kid wants cash. We live in a world where both can, do and will exist. Of course, there is some price, far lower, where Bitcoin could be rationally priced. Trust is important. Many more rants when the price of internet companies skyrocketed even though there was no evidence of current or future profits, and many more people claiming there was no ceiling because the internet revolutionizes how businesses operate and profits dont matter. Why Bitcoin is Stupid (Don't Put All Your Eggs In One Basket?) Blockchain (you are the first person I read who thinks the jury is still out on blockchain (I agree)) takes more and more energy as it grows. if they dont open one day, the fragile world crumbles. Research further. I was kinda hoping he'd mention if his frugality was a factor or not. And gold has at least *some* practical value you can make attractive jewelry that doesnt tarnish, use it in electronics, dental fillings. Im not saying to build a bunker or anything but just diversify your portfolio for different economic times. ;). No major government will transact in a currency it cannot control. January 3, 2018, 12:13 pm. But, these days you shouldnt use resistance heaters except for the lightest heating loads, because they are obsolete. Well I guess its all right then. Governments have no choice here. The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.. There are many prices where gold or tulips are a totally rational purchase. Yes, it is true that bonds are *also* in a bubble at the present timeand that the bond bubble is so big that it makes stocks look relatively cheap by comparison. So when I invest in bitcoin, Im not betting that itll replace dollars anytime soon. So basically you dont understand any of this, therefore it must be a scam. As the people in Greece and Iceland found out, along with people in many other countries. I agree w jon. So If Jihan wakes up on the wrong side of the bed and decides to dump all his coins then it will open up hell hole for every one else. And regarding Bitcoin as currency, it is already not usable as that TODAY. But its likely just down the toilet. But again, this is not investment but speculation! For a shortcut to understanding good investing, you can also simply look up Warren Buffets thinking on almost any topic hes careful enough about offering opinions that by the time he makes a statement on something, you can be pretty sure it will be among the best answers out there. also remember while the market cap is $230bn at least 20% of coins are lost from the early years. We dont need to prey on their consumerism also. I also remember that bubble..sure a lot of things moved to the internet but it had to crash..hard first. I am Mr. Money Mustache, mild mannered retired-at-30 software engineer who later became accidental leader of Ironic Cult of Mustachianism. So, how is Bitcoin better or different? their invested dollars add value to a society the moment they are employed.. ), but to include gold bullion is not quite fair. Gold has the 2 most important properties to make it function as money, scarcity and intrinsic value. Allow it time to grow to say 10 trillion, and then let us debate on stability. This is really useful for me to hone my thinking about the topic. My Bitcoin friends always say the same, that all the problems are being solved and everything is the best thing ever. I agree that Bitcoin isnt an investment. E.g. I hope it wasn't, but as he said in the article, it's none of our damn business. In the field of personal wealth, this means walking your children past the idling lineup of your neighbors Mercedes SUVs, over the snowy grass and up to the door of the school and being confident that you are doing the right thing. No, I am more inclined to trust economic models where the rules are clearly defined and cannot be changed, by anyone, ever. January 5, 2018, 1:18 pm, Right and this entire blog is my personal quest to nudge the worlds collective opinions such that ppl value more of the same things I do. But I did put about $600 in Bitcoin over a year ago. These are preposterous numbers. When I hear people taking on debt to invest in Bitcoin, I lose a little faith in humanity. The most useful comments are those written with the goal of learning from or helping out other readers after reading the whole article and all the earlier comments. We dont buy average cars or average homes we buy older cars, and smaller homes to cut costs and live a modest life. Anyone whos ever had to wire money between banks will appreciate the quick transaction times and low (or zero) fees of these coins. January 3, 2018, 4:34 am, Dont plan on investing in cryptocurrency. No guarantees that if bitcoin drops that it will ever come back. Vijay What ICO do you own? As strong, intellengent Mustachians, we must think critically for ourselves about what is implied by trusting fiat currencies. Naturally sentiment plays an important role in BTCs price. As such, its an awful means of trade. As has the MMM investing sub-furum. I cant help but feel that a big part of the reason for Bitcoins continued rise is that theres no safe, practical way for us Bitcoin-skeptics to actually take a short position on it. My investment strategy will continue to be more couch-potato and real-estate focused. The problems it solves for the billions of people in the second and third world shouldnt be so casually dismissed though. Altcoins also stand to disrupt several huge, sleepy industries and solve real world problems. I agree with Tawcan. MMM typically suggests going long in index funds, not bonds. Humanity deserves an alternative to government (aka the financial elite) controlled money. Then it started falling as people cashed out. I use purse.io to buy stuff from Amazon. I can trade with anyone in the world for a low price (not necessarily with bitcoin as the price has gotten expensive but with other currencies). College, Medical, Cars, houses, Child Care, Stocks, Bitcoin, hell even dining out is all overinflated. Then I came to my senses and realized that I only want to make money providing value to society. Look up ethereum and Eos and read deeply on how fundamental this decentralised future beholds. You sound like I poop-obsessed wing nut. Research Ethereum further. Your examples exactly prove the point: social media is great, but the first ones to take off werent the winner remember SixDegrees, Friendster, MySpace? People will overbuy it in a frenzy and oversell it when fear sets in. "Find a graph that includes [the. Basically Mr. Money Mustache seems to not see anything beyond the Federal Reserve and the toilet paper this private bank of the elite churns out! He pulled this off by living on a small percentage of his income as a software engineer, and diligently . Im selling because I agree that cryptocurrencies have entered the bubble phase, but when it comes to theirlong-term viability, you have completely missed the bigger picture. The EntreLeadership Podcast is a must-listen for any entrepreneur or business leader looking to take their business to the next level. Please let it go. It can be laundered. I let it sit around 2.5% of my savings (Im still growing my nest egg). Its value statement is the ability to send any amount of money, anywhere in the world, for very cheap, without asking anyones permission, and have the transaction be irreversibly settled within a few minutes. Retweeted. Ryan Thomas If you were setting up your portfolio from scratch today, would you buy $500K of GBTC with it? This instability just further proves that it would make a terrible currency and a recent study reveals that about 95% of even the trading volume is fraudulent. After all, you could make the same argument about Mr. Money Mustache's fingernail clippings: they may have no intrinsic value, but at least they are in limited supply so let's use them as the new world currency! 2 Billion unbanked people on the planet to also enjoy a level playing field through this new Internet of Money. Then you have to pay a ton of interest to borrow it, and be lucky with the timing. Because it is. Who would help the poor, elderly and uneducated those without BTC? January 5, 2018, 7:01 am. If youre one of these credible people, please do so in the comments or in a blog post on Medium that we can all read. Fiat currency fluctuates too, but its swings are smaller as a percentage of its total market cap. 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