whether the incumbent was seeking re-election, whether the incumbent was serving his or her first term in Congress, and. -- A modified version of the model that also incorporates expert analysis also suggests that Republicans are favored in both chambers, but 465 Crestwood DriveP.O. What Election Day looks like based on polls alone, What Election Day looks like based on polls, fundraising, past voting patterns and more, What Election Day looks like when we add experts ratings to the Classic forecast. [47][48], The following table displays members included in the NRCC's Patriot Program for the 2022 election cycle. A special election for the seat was held concurrently with the general election on November 8. A similar situation occurred in the 2012 election, in which Republicans managed to hold onto their majority despite losing the national popular vote for the House. [49] Also included is each district's 2022 partisan lean as of June 2022 from The Cook Political Report and FiveThirtyEight.[50][51]. The Interactive and 2023 views use redistricted lines, placing incumbents where applicable . Size of this PNG preview of this SVG file: 424 600 pixels. Five of the chamber's six non-voting members were up for election as well. Last updated Nov. 8, 2022, 2:08 p.m. PST Steve Shepard Chief POLITICO election reporter Election Day arrived with 217 seats in the "Solid," "Likely" or "Lean Republican" category putting. In the 2014 primary for Virginia's 7th Congressional District, House Majority Leader Eric Cantor (R), ranked behind only then-Speaker John Boehner (R) in Republican House leadership, was defeated by economics professor Dave Brat (R). When not including blank votes, Delgado received 54% of the vote. Crime has become KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- We are making a couple of House rating changes this week, both of which are to the benefit of members who won recent special elections. Secretary of State Frank LaRose (R) called for the state legislative primary to be held on August 2, 2022 (the primary was originally scheduled for May 3, 2022). 2022 United States House of Representatives Elections in Iowa by county.svg. 2022 United States House of Representatives Predictions. For more information about the redistricting process in those states where multiple U.S. House incumbents ran in the same district, see: Ballotpedia's Annual Congressional Competitiveness report for 2022 includes information on the number of elections featuring candidates from both major parties, the number of open seats, and more. RCP Senate Map Race Changes. [61] Five states (Colorado, Florida, Montana, North Carolina, and Oregon) gained one seat each, and Texas gained two seats. 2022 Election Results Republicans have won the House, regaining control of the chamber for the first time since 2018. Check out our, There is no secret sauce. His latest book,The Great Alignment: Race, Party Transformation, and the Rise of Donald Trump, was released in 2018 by Yale University Press. Source: Data compiled by author Conditional forecasts for the 2022 midterms. If we assume that redistricting will be worth an additional 10 House seats to the GOP, Democrats would likely need a lead of at least 10 points on the generic ballot in order to maintain control of the lower chamber. The Rio Grande Valley swung sharply to the right in the last election. Click here for our coverage of special elections to the 117th Congress. Use this as a starting point to create and share your own 2022 House forecast. 2024 House Interactive Map 2024 Pundit Forecasts 2022 House Polls 2022 House Simulation View Your 2022 District 2022 House Retirements 2022 House Election Results. Rep. Jackie Walorski (R) died on August 3, 2022. As a result of the elections, Republicans gained a 222-213 majority.[1]. One district was vacant because the incumbent passed away.[3]. A smaller Democratic lead in the generic ballot, or a Republican lead, would predict a Republican edge in the House, and possibly also in the Senate. Republicans formally captured 218 House seats, a delayed yet consequential finish to the 2022 midterm elections. McLeod-Skinner's margin of victory over Schrader in the primary. The Senate model is not quite as accurate, explaining about 60% of the variance in seat swing. Dots closer to the line represent tighter races, and wider bars mean more uncertainty about the outcome. GOP Rep. Steve Chabot survived 2020, but Ohio''s new congressional map could be too steep a hill for him to climb. Democrats 36 seats not up for election. Ten districts were open because the incumbent lost in a primary. This article is reprinted from Sabato's Crystal Ball. Read the Analysis >. !function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r. Hover over or tap a district to view the incumbent's name. The average seat loss has been almost 27 seats in the House and between three and four seats in the Senate. 63Non-voting delegates 63.1American Samoa 63.2District of Columbia 63.3Guam 63.4Northern Mariana Islands 63.5United States Virgin Islands 64See also 65Notes 66References Toggle the table of contents 2022 United States House of Representatives elections 12 languages Deutsch Espaol Franais Suomi Chavez-DeRemer defeated McLeod-Skinner in the general election. Democrats currently hold an extraordinarily narrow 220-211 seat majority in the House of Representatives with four . Beyond this general tendency, however, the magnitude of these losses has varied considerably. Democrats held 30 of those districts, Republicans held seven, and two were newly created districts after the 2020 census. Last updated: Feb. 3, 2023 11:57 a.m. PST 218 for majority 213 DEMS GOP. This analysis provides an understanding of how competitive the year's primary elections were using metrics including the number of incumbents who did not seek re-election, the total number of contested primaries, and the number of incumbents with primary challengers. CrowdwisdomLive Quebec Election 2022 Predictions: . The 2022 United States House of Representatives elections in Michigan were held on November 8, 2022, to elect representatives for the thirteen seats in Michigan (reduced from 14 in the redistricting cycle following the 2020 United States census).The deadline for candidates to file for the August 2 primary was April 19. But 2022 will be a steeper climb. The table below includes election results for seats that were open because the incumbent lost re-election in a primary. Before Johnson had his first midterm in 1966, he was re-elected president in 1964. The results in Table 2 show that the generic ballot and the number of seats defended by the presidents party have strong and statistically significant effects in both House and Senate elections. Benjamin Kalu. The charts below show primary competitiveness statistics for the U.S. House from 2014 to 2022. All Rights Reserved. Click on the to see the other two. 2022 U.S. House Elections with multiple incumbents. Ballotpedia considers a seat to be open if the incumbent representative did not file to run for re-election or if they filed for re-election but withdrew before the primary. Facebook Tweet Pin Email. [35][36] Also included is each district's 2022 partisan lean as of May 2022 from The Cook Political Report and FiveThirtyEight. Clickme! Lawmakers in the Colorado House of Representatives on Monday defeated a Republican proposal for a sweeping overhaul of state election laws backed by conspiracy theorists who baselessly allege that . Miles Coleman, and Larry J. Sabato. Items are listed in reverse chronological order by date of change, with the most recent change appearing first. The tendency of the presidents party to lose seats in Congress in midterm elections is one of the best-known regularities in American politics. The seat of the Resident Commissioner of Puerto Rico, whose functions are similar to the delegates, was not up for election this year. The U.S. House incumbents listed in the table below announced their candidacy for the same congressional district for the 2022 U.S. House elections. Gibbs defeated Meijer in the primary. Will it be a close race or, um, not? Ballotpedia defines wave elections as the 20 percent of elections where the president's party lost the most seats during the last 100 years (50 election cycles). Use this as a starting point to create and share your own 2022 House forecast. With over 37% vote share, they won 74 of the 125 seats. The index, developed by Charles Cook of the The Cook Political Report, compares each congressional district's score to that of the nation as a whole. Miles Coleman, along with our Center for Politics colleague Carah Ong Whaley, will be hosting a Twitter Spaces at noon eastern on Thursday to discuss the looming midterm elections. The Interactive and 2023 views use redistricted lines, placing incumbents where applicable. The final2022 House Power Rankingsfrom Fox News. If you're looking to stake $100 at -350, you will make a $28.57 profit if the elephant prevails. When candidates from only one of either the Democratic or Republican parties run for a U.S. House seat, the seat is all but guaranteed to be won by that party. Glenn Youngkin flipped the following fall. Democrats currently hold an extraordinarily narrow 220-211 seat majority in the House of Representatives with four seats vacant two Democratic seats and two Republican seats. Hover over a district for more information. The elections will coincide with the 2023 presidential election, as well as other elections to the House of Representatives and elections to the Senate; with state elections . There are three tiers of the program, with each requiring that candidates meet more rigorous goals in order to qualify. CA-13, IN-01, MI-07, NV-01, OH-01, OH-09, PA-08, PA-17, RI-02, WA-08 move to Leans Republican; CT-05, IL-17, ME-02, MI-08, MN-02, NY-17, NY-19, OR-06 to Leans Democratic. 50. Terms of service | Privacy Policy | Do not sell my info | Notice to California Residents, Design & development: Andrew Briz, Beatrice Jin, Arjun Kakkar, Andrew McGill, Allan James Vestal, Audience & strategy: Caroline Amenabar, Annie Bryan, Kam Burns, Isabel Dobrin, Annie Yu, Elana Zak. The president's party lost 48 or more U.S. House seats in 11 of the 50 elections since 1918, ranging from 97 seats lost under President Herbert Hoover in 1930 to 48 seats lost under Presidents Lyndon Johnson (1966) and Gerald Ford (1974). Ellis' calculations included blank votes in this race. [56][57], The following table displays candidates who have qualified for the Young Guns Vanguard program for the 2022 election cycle. A net loss of only a handful of House seats and a single Senate seat next November would give Republicans control of both chambers. The Senate, of course, is split down the middle with Democrats in the majority by virtue of holding the tie-breaking vote in the person of Vice President Kamala Harris. The state court then issued an order establishing new candidate filing deadlines. Alan I. Abramowitz is the Alben W. Barkley Professor of Political Science at Emory University and a senior columnist with Sabatos Crystal Ball. In the Senate data, the point for 2002 is also well above the regression line while points for several other elections including 1962 and 1978 are also well above or below the line. Based on results from recent elections, I set the range of possible generic ballot results for next fall as +10 Democratic to -10 Democratic (or +10 Republican). Republicans are widely expected to gain at least a few additional House seats in 2022 by virtue of controlling states with far more House districts during the redistricting process. The final 2022 House ratings from Inside Elections. Colorado. Denotes the party that had more seats in the U.S. House following the election. Click or tap any of the thumbnails for an interactive version that you can use to create and share your own 2022 House forecast. The size of the seat exposure effect is especially noteworthy considering that the number of Senate seats in play is only about one-twelfth of the number of House seats in play. November 7: FL-13 moves from Likely to Leans Republican; FL-27 Leans to Likely Republican; TX-28 Leans Democratic to Toss-up. When not including blank votes, Rice received 56% of the vote. By Happy Elections Nerd November 16, 2021 July 11, 2022 u.s. house of representatives. Steve Shepard, our chief forecaster, has settled on four core principles A recent Quinnipiac poll gave Democrats a nine-point lead on the generic ballot. Republicans' South Texas surge could net them this congressional seat. Miles Coleman Posted November 7, 2022. These boundaries will be in effect through 2022. Policy: Christopher Nelson Caitlin Styrsky Molly Byrne Katharine Frey Jimmy McAllister Samuel Postell Democratic Rep. Cindy Axne survived 2020, despite Donald Trump carrying her Des Moines-based district. The court later fixed March 15, 2022, as the filing deadline for statewide offices and the U.S. Congress. Gluesenkamp defeated Kent in the general election. Welcome to 338Canada Quebec! 100% remote. The candidate of Labour Party, Thaddeus Attah, has been declared the winner of the Eti-Osa Federal Constituency seat in the House of Representatives. The danger for Democrats is that these races end up Dear Readers: We are pleased to feature an article written by Lucca Ruggieri, a student at Great Valley High School in Malvern, Pennsylvania who interned with us over the summer. !function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",function(a){if(void 0!==a.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var e in a.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.getElementById("datawrapper-chart-"+e)||document.querySelector("iframe[src*='"+e+"']");if(t)(t.style.height=a.data["datawrapper-height"][e]+"px")}})}(); The following table lists incumbents defeated in the 2022 general election for U.S. The table below lists changes made to election dates and deadlines in the 2022 election cycle. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) reported the following fundraising amounts for the 2021-22 election cycle: !function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(a){if(void 0!==a.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var e in a.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.getElementById("datawrapper-chart-"+e)||document.querySelector("iframe[src*='"+e+"']");if(t)(t.style.height=a.data["datawrapper-height"][e]+"px")}}))}(); The Current House view on the map shows incumbent members in their current districts. [52] Also included is each district's 2022 partisan lean as of July 2022 from The Cook Political Report and FiveThirtyEight. The candidate listed may change based on primary results or other factors. Operations: Meghann Olshefski Mandy Morris Kelly Rindfleisch The line in each graph is the regression line generated by the equations in Table 2. Currently, they have 76 seats in the National Assembly. Democratic Rep. Abigail Spanberger is seeking a third term in a district President Joe Biden won by 6 points in 2020 but now-Gov. With ten days until the November 8 midterm elections, political forecasters and pollsters say Republicans appear to have a strong chance of retaking control of the House of Representatives.. November 7: Toss-up races projected. View live updates on electoral votes by state for presidential candidates Joe Biden and Donald Trump on ABC News. Michael F.Q. This is the highest rate of congressional incumbents facing contested primaries since at least 2014 and is at least the fourth consecutive cycle where this rate has increased from the previous cycle. The original filing deadline was set for March 11, 2022. Current Cook Political 2022 House forecast. Heading into the election, Democrats had a 220-212 majority. You can also view these ratingsas a table. These boundaries will be in effect through 2022. Senate. -- A large number of races remain close and competitive. Sablan ran as an independent from 2008 to 2020. His name still appeared on the primary ballot. The map and table below show the U.S. House races without major opposition in 2022 and the party that won each seat. The U.S. District Court for the Northern District of Alabama postponed the filing deadline for primary congressional candidates from January 28, 2022, to February 11, 2022. Less clear is what the race will do to his . !function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r. These maps reflect the ratings of a number of quantitative and qualitative forecasters, as well as some consensus projections. 2022 U.S. House of Representative election results and polls For a list of seats that opened up as a result of an incumbent losing re-election in a primary, see the following section. * This is FiveThirtyEights best guess as to who the nominee will be, based on an analysis of incumbency, polls, fundraising, previous experience and endorsements. Edited by Kyle Kondik, J. The final2022 House ratings from Politico. Use this map to create and share your own 2022 House Election forecast. Ballotpedia tracked 39 districts (8.5%) as battleground races. Forty-four (44) states adopted congressional district maps. This section does not include vacant seats filled by special election before November 8, 2022, unless no incumbents appeared on the regular primary ballot for that seat. All 435 U.S. House seats are up for election this year. -- Going solely by presidential partisanship, our moves in Alaska and South Texas would seem odd, but each areahaskeyidiosyncrasies. KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- The spending decisions by big outside House groups can inform us about the most competitive House races. From Wikimedia Commons, the free media repository. He's happy to chat about weather forecasting too. Four of the delegates filed to run for re-election. For 2022 to qualify historically as a wave election, Democrats must lose 48 U.S. House seats in 2022. GOP Rep. Don Bacons race is one to watch. -- That said, there are also a lot of contradictory signs. 2022 Election Predictions, State Pages, Special Elections . Toss-up to Leans R: CA-22, IL-17, IN-01, MI-07, NV-03, OH-01, OH-09, PA-17, RI-02, TX-34. House.[5]. There are 26 seats rated as Toss Up races where neither party has a significant advantage. There were 30 U.S. House Republican battleground primaries in 2022. WINNER Mike Garcia, Republican, wins re-election to the U.S. House to. One additional factor that is not included in the House forecast is the impact of redistricting, which will take place this cycle based on the results of the 2020 census. There were 35 U.S. House districts and one seat in the U.S. Senate in 2022 that were effectively guaranteed to one major party because no candidate from the other party appeared on the general election ballot, accounting for 8.0% of all U.S. House races and 2.9% of all U.S. Senate races. This was more than in 2020 but fewer than at any other point in the preceding decade. This analysis uses the following definitions: !function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r